# Bootstrap simulation results

Deterministic static reserve scenarios, not demand or return forecasts.

Recommendation under the declared scoring policy: **DEEPER-200M-250USDG**.

This candidate still has 205.38% average impact for a $1,000 launch buy and 38.54% worst $100 average impact across $3K/$5K/$10K/$25K FDV. Low external capital does not imply good execution for large orders.

Every configuration searches 9 nonuniform range-weight/lower-bound combinations (243 candidate curves overall).
The recommendation is sensitive to explicit slippage, inventory, and capital preferences; it is not a global economic optimum.

| Configuration | Launch $100 average impact | Worst early $100 impact | Net buys to $10K FDV | $1M upward 1% depth | Score |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DEEPER-200M-250USDG | 11.45% | 38.54% | $353.43 | $310.76 | 1.548 |
| DEEPER-250M-250USDG | 11.45% | 28.17% | $392.06 | $425.14 | 1.578 |
| BALANCED-250M-250USDG | 19.55% | 37.82% | $252.56 | $591.21 | 1.691 |
| BALANCED-200M-250USDG | 19.55% | 49.15% | $227.37 | $452.05 | 2.053 |
| DEEPER-150M-250USDG | 11.45% | 60.19% | $314.79 | $196.39 | 2.423 |
| DEEPER-250M-500USDG | 5.73% | 42.96% | $590.96 | $278.39 | 2.516 |
| BALANCED-250M-500USDG | 9.77% | 45.81% | $379.18 | $486.62 | 2.616 |
| AGGRESSIVE-250M-250USDG | 29.53% | 58.87% | $162.65 | $757.99 | 2.726 |
| BALANCED-150M-250USDG | 19.55% | 68.40% | $202.18 | $312.89 | 2.810 |
| AGGRESSIVE-200M-250USDG | 29.53% | 72.25% | $147.93 | $589.63 | 3.192 |
| BALANCED-200M-500USDG | 9.77% | 62.33% | $353.99 | $347.46 | 3.237 |
| AGGRESSIVE-250M-500USDG | 14.76% | 64.81% | $251.70 | $674.20 | 3.541 |
| DEEPER-200M-500USDG | 5.73% | 71.20% | $552.32 | $164.02 | 3.721 |
| AGGRESSIVE-150M-250USDG | 29.54% | 94.28% | $133.21 | $421.28 | 4.091 |
| AGGRESSIVE-200M-500USDG | 14.76% | 81.56% | $236.98 | $505.85 | 4.175 |
| DEEPER-250M-1000USDG | 4.52% | 58.97% | $696.82 | $200.29 | 4.338 |
| DEEPER-150M-500USDG | 7.54% | 95.26% | $418.06 | $120.20 | 4.697 |
| BALANCED-150M-500USDG | 9.77% | 97.26% | $328.80 | $208.30 | 4.779 |
| DEEPER-200M-1000USDG | 5.65% | 72.80% | $557.55 | $160.16 | 4.802 |
| BALANCED-250M-1000USDG | 4.89% | 75.77% | $632.41 | $277.44 | 5.165 |
| AGGRESSIVE-250M-1000USDG | 7.38% | 81.38% | $429.80 | $506.64 | 5.405 |
| AGGRESSIVE-150M-500USDG | 14.76% | 112.38% | $222.26 | $337.50 | 5.513 |
| DEEPER-150M-1000USDG | 7.53% | 95.33% | $418.18 | $120.10 | 5.700 |
| BALANCED-200M-1000USDG | 5.65% | 102.94% | $538.73 | $194.86 | 6.305 |
| AGGRESSIVE-200M-1000USDG | 7.38% | 112.05% | $415.08 | $338.28 | 6.735 |
| BALANCED-150M-1000USDG | 7.53% | 132.49% | $404.07 | $146.13 | 7.555 |
| AGGRESSIVE-150M-1000USDG | 7.53% | 187.99% | $393.07 | $176.78 | 10.328 |

## Recommended checkpoint curve

| FDV | Net buying | LP USDG principal | TOKEN remaining | $100 impact | $1,000 impact |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| $3,000 | $0.00 | $250.00 | 200,000,000 | 11.45% | 205.38% |
| $5,000 | $248.41 | $498.41 | 135,859,560 | 38.54% | 307.10% |
| $10,000 | $353.43 | $603.43 | 121,006,557 | 22.58% | 178.11% |
| $25,000 | $605.15 | $855.15 | 105,089,703 | 6.92% | 66.65% |
| $50,000 | $1190.11 | $1440.11 | 88,544,694 | 3.37% | 33.59% |
| $100,000 | $2395.93 | $2645.93 | 71,492,796 | 2.06% | 20.60% |
| $250,000 | $5153.87 | $5403.87 | 54,051,482 | 0.64% | 6.45% |
| $500,000 | $11433.24 | $11683.24 | 36,291,971 | 0.32% | 3.18% |
| $1,000,000 | $24187.58 | $24437.58 | 18,256,540 | 0.16% | 1.57% |

## Profile tradeoffs

- AGGRESSIVE broadens the active position below launch and favors later inventory: cheaper initial discovery, weaker early execution.
- BALANCED allocates moderate resistance near launch: intermediate price movement and late depth.
- DEEPER targets more active liquidity and earlier inventory: better small-order execution but slower discovery and less later inventory.

Capital and inventory are independent scenario axes for all profiles. Inventory constraints may broaden an active lower bound; all quote capital remains deployed. Profiles do not guarantee a slippage ceiling.

Ranges end near $2M FDV so $1M has finite remaining depth. Orders exceeding capacity partially execute, report unspent USDG, and flag exhaustion; there is no extrapolated infinite liquidity.

LP USDG principal excludes LP fees; separate one-way fee columns are path assumptions. Trading volume may be large with zero net buying, and reward revenues cannot be inferred from the FDV path alone.